Earthquakes frequently claim hundreds of lives and cause major damage to cities and infrastructures. More recent large earthquakes (e.g., M 8.8 in Chile, 2010; M 9.1 in Japan, 2011; M7.8 and M7.7 in Turkey, 2023) as well as moderate-size devastating events (M 6.3 in New Zealand, 2010) are forceful reminders
that earthquakes cannot be predicted. However, we can prepare for the expected shaking levels and potential secondary effects (tsunamis, landslides, liquefaction) by investigating the physics of earthquake rupture, by studying seismic wave propagation
in the Earth's crust, and by finding innovative methods to quantify the seismic hazard.
The CES-group at KAUST conducts research to study earthquake source physics and ground-motion generation, with the goal to gain insight into
earthquake properties and to create new tools for seismic-shaking estimation for earthquake-engineering applications. We use seismic data to image the kinematic rupture process during earthquakes, and perform forward simulations to understand the
dynamcis of the rupture process under various initial conditions. We calculate the radiated seismic wavefield emitted by the space-time varying rupture process, and investigate seismic wave scattering in heterogeneous Earth crust. We further simulate long sequences of earthquakes via multi-cycle earthquake rupture simulations to provide earthquake rupture forecasts for seismic hazard assessment. We are also interested
in retrieving accurate information about Earth structure in Saudi Arabia in order to understand better the seismo-tectonics and geo-dynamics of the Arabian Plate, and to improve earthquake locations and thus seismic monitoring capabilities and seismic
hazard calculations in the region.
Research Topics
Dynamic rupture simulations are physics-based numerical models that capture the full mechanics of an earthquake — from rupture nucleation, through propagation across a fault, to its eventual arrest — together with the seismic waves it radiates. By solving fault friction and elastodynamics together, these models reveal how fault geometry, stress, and friction control rupture speed, slip, and ground shaking, linking fault mechanics directly to seismic hazard.
Earthquake cycle simulations are physics-based numerical models that replicate the long-term behavior of fault systems across many successive earthquakes. By self-consistently modeling the interseismic, coseismic, and postseismic phases of faulting, these simulations capture how stress accumulates and releases over decades to millennia, generating long synthetic earthquake catalogs that inform earthquake rupture forecasting and probabilistic seismic hazard assessment.
Saudi Arabia's energy and electricity demand has long relied on fossil fuels, but the Kingdom's geology also holds significant untapped geothermal potential. Our research explores and models low-to-medium enthalpy geothermal resources for heating and cooling, water desalination, and power generation, focusing on the hydrothermal systems of the high heat-flow Red Sea rift basin — a sustainable, low-carbon complement to the national energy mix.
Kinematic source inversion reconstructs an earthquake's rupture process — the distribution, timing, and velocity of fault slip — by fitting observed seismic and geodetic data to a physical model of the rupture. Solving this ill-posed inverse problem requires advanced statistical techniques to handle uncertainty between model parameters. The resulting slip models improve our understanding of earthquake source physics and provide input for tsunami forecasting and rapid hazard response.
Observational seismology is the data-driven study of seismic waves — generated by earthquakes, volcanoes, or human activity — recorded by networks of seismometers. By analyzing the arrival times, amplitudes, and waveforms of these signals, we can map subsurface structures, characterize tectonic processes, and constrain the physics of earthquake sources, underpinning hazard monitoring and efforts to improve seismic networks and earthquake locations.
Seismic and tsunami hazard assessment evaluates the likelihood and impact of earthquake-induced ground shaking and the tsunamis it may trigger, both essential for societal and infrastructure resilience. These assessments integrate historical seismicity, tectonic studies, instrumental observations, and numerical modeling to estimate shaking intensities and tsunami inundation potential, informing risk reduction and preparedness. We focus on the numerical modeling component of this chain.