Response to Zöller et al.'s critique on “Potential short‐term earthquake forecasting by farm‐animal monitoring

by Martin Wikelski, Uschi Mueller, Paola Scocco, Andrea Catorci, Lev. V. Desinov, Mikhail Y. Belyaev, Daniel Keim, Winfried Pohlmeier, Gerhard Fechteler, P. Martin Mai
Year: 2021

Extra Information

Ethology. January 2021, Vol. 127, Issue 3, Pages 307-308.


Zöller et al. (Ethology, 2020) criticize our original publication (Wikelski et al., Ethology, 126(9), 2020, 931) for obvious reasons: we only observed the behavior of one group of farm animals before, during and after one earthquake series in one area of the world. It is clear that no earthquake predictions are possible, and should not be attempted, from this data set. However, what we show is that there is important information within this animal collective pertaining to potential future local forecasting of earthquakes when combined with traditional data sources. We maintain that combining Zöller et al.'s (2020) modeling tools with the adequate use of our data can stimulate novel ways of earthquake forecasting. Future studies should combine both approaches.